Manchester United’s failure to beat PSV at Old Trafford a fortnight ago means they face a stiff task to qualify for the Champions League knockout stage and I’m not sure they can defy the odds in Germany.
United need to beat Wolfsburg to be assured of their place in the last 16 with the Dutch champions hosting CSKA on Tuesday, the Russians are already eliminated so a home win is expected, and the Red Devils’ recent performances suggest they will need to raise their game to do so.
It’s hardly been much fun watching United this term but under-fire manager Louis Van Gaal should take plenty of credit for making them tough to beat and their defensive record is exceptional.
The emergence of Chris Smalling in the heart of the back four has been one of the few positives for fans of the Premier League side this season and the England man and his teammates have conceded just four goals in 11 matches since thumped 3-0 by Arsenal in early October.
That is some effort but it is at the other end of the pitch where Van Gaal has struggled to get the best out of his misfiring forwards. United have found the opposition’s net just 10 times since that reversal at The Emirates and adding to the five goalless draws in that period on Tuesday probably won’t be enough to see them through.
With Wolfsburg guaranteed of qualification should they avoid defeat, I think this clash will be particularly cagey and it is no surprise to see under 2.5 total goals available to back at just 8/11.
At effectively the same price however, I am laying the hosts. With only three loses in 24 matches in all competitions since August, the visitors need to be sided with to continue that trend and I’m not bothered about the absence of Wayne Rooney through injury.
The United captain has looked laboured for some time now and Van Gaal would dearly love Anthony Martial to rediscover the sensational form he enjoyed when beginning his United career.
Wolfsburg’s home defeat to Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga will give the Frenchman hope of exploiting any German nerves and if United nick a goal, they should avoid defeat.
United’s best performance of the season to date came in the reverse fixture at the Theatre of Dreams when winning 2-1 and that is another tick in the box for supporting the away side at the prices.
2pts Lay Wolfsburg (vs. Man Utd) @ 2.4 (Betfair)