In my opinion, despite all talk of England being favourites, Australia will win the Ashes this southern summer.
The Aussies backs are against the wall and everyone fancies England. In true Ashes tradition, this is a bad sign for the English.
But, of course, there’s more to it than that.
Despite all the hype, Australia aren’t in crisis.
Yes, the Australian selectors have been dithering about who will be in the XI come the first Test, but this is still a strong side.
Selecting a 17-man squad a week out from the first Test, certainly surprised a few, not the least the English travelling party.
English newspaper The Guardian wrote: “Australia’s muddled thinking contrasts with England, who already know their first-choice XI and have enjoyed a flawless pre-Ashes build-up.
“The Aussies showed the chaos and confusion engulfing their team here last night when they named an incredible 17 players.”
Australian selector Greg Chappell, though, said they’d picked a 17-man squad because they could. And they wanted to use all the time they needed to trim that team down for the first Test.
And in the end, you know the eleven Australian cricketers who run onto the field for the first Test in Brisbane will have those typical Aussie characteristics.
That’s one thing which has traditionally made Australia so hard to beat; their desperation to win and their never-give-up attitude. On home soil, that might make it difficult for the English to overcome.
England’s trump cards will be in their bowling attack with spinner Graeme Swann causing Australia problems in the past, while Stuart Broad was outstanding last series.
Andrew Strauss will shoulder a lot of the burden for England’s batting order and you know his wicket will be much a sought-after one for the Aussies.
Strauss and fellow Alistair Cook have had trouble putting together good opening partnerships too, which is an issue for the English.
Kevin Pietersen has also been out-of-sorts for the past 18 months but he does love the occasion and the Ashes will certainly be that. He’ll be the barometer for England’s batting performances.
Interestingly, one major change for England from their team from last series (which won 2-1) is the retirement of Ashes star Andrew Flintoff and that’s something which has been forgotten.
Indeed, all the talk in the press has been about Australia’s problems, particularly with injuries troubling the likes of Michael Clarke, Peter Siddle and Doug Bollinger, while Michael Hussey and Marcus North have had their form issues.
There’s also been the inability of the selectors to decide on which spinner to select with Nathan Hauritz ultimately dropping out in favour of young Tasmanian Xavier Doherty which is a gamble.
And Australia has lost its past three Test matches, including a 2-0 series defeat in India.
Then again, winning a series on the subcontinent is one of cricket’s toughest challenges and this supposedly out-of-form Australian side pushed the Indians all the way.
The first Test in India was won by a wicket when umpiring decisions might have altered the outcome (which is another story altogether) while the second Test saw Sachin Tendulkar score a glorious double-century and ultimately guide his side to glory by seven wickets.
Yes Australia were beaten but it wasn’t a severe defeat. Far from it. Don’t underestimate the challenge of winning in India.
There’s certainly aspects of Australia’s team which are strong particularly their opening combination of Simon Katich and Shane Watson who are so hard to dismiss. And Ricky Ponting remains one of the premier batsmen in the world.
The pace attack isn’t bad either, particularly on their day, with Mitchell Johnson, Ben Hilfenhaus and Peter Siddle all lively bowlers capable of taking key wickets.
Despite what all the hype may suggest, there isn’t much separating these sides and this will be a tight series.
The difference has been both side’s preparations, with England appearing more settled than Australia. But the Aussies’ troubles have been overblown and they will be more determined than ever to silence their critics, as Australian teams traditionally are.
The challenge of England winning in Australia is large too. The Aussies know the conditions well.
The fact remains the last time England won Down Under was way back in 1986-87. Is this side good enough to end that drought?
I don’t think so, and it’ll be a battling Australia side to win regain the Ashes and win 3-1.