PSG should have all but sealed their place in the last eight of the Champions League but couldn’t quite put Valencia away in the first leg and the tie is not over just yet.
Goals from Ezequiel Lavezzi and Javier Pastore at the Mestalla put the big-spending Parisians in complete control three weeks ago but a late Adil Rami strike has given Valencia hope and I think they might push their hosts all the way.
PSG could well live to rue the dying moments of the first leg, Zlatan Ibrahimovic saw red shortly after the game’s third goal, and without their suspended talisman I am willing to lay the hosts in a game they do not need to win.
PSG will also be without Marco Verratti and the visitors are slowly coming into form.
It is a tall order to turn around a deficit away from home but that defeat to Wednesday’s opponents was Valencia’s only reversal in eight matches, a period which included 1-1 draws against both Barcelona and Real Madrid.
In fact, Ernesto Valverde’s side have been excellent on the road, six wins and just one defeat, at the Bernabeu, in their last eight and an early Valencia goal would certainly put the heat under the Ligue 1 leaders.
PSG are expected to seal the title in France but there is no doubt they are wobbling and they have not convinced in any of their four matches since the 2-1 win in Spain.
Defeats at Sochaux and Reims either side of a pair of far from straightforward wins over Marseille suggest Carlo Ancelotti’s men are not quite at it and the loss of Ibrahimovic should not be underestimated.
PSG have been on the drift all day but can still be opposed at around 2.00 and that’s the play for me.
3pts Lay PSG (vs. Valencia) @ 2.00 (Betfair)