Croatia failed to top what was a weak qualifying section for Euro 2012 and look short enough to me at a little over even money to start their campaign with a win.
Slaven Bilic’s side take on Ireland on Sunday evening and both these sides know that really a win is needed with Spain and Italy making up the rest of Group C.
It’s hard to imagine either of these two qualifying for the knockout stage were they to suffer an opening defeat and while Croatia are the more likely victors, I’m not sure there should be such a discrepancy in the prices.
Croatia picked up just one point from their two matches with Greece in the preliminaries and having witnessed how poor they were in Euro 2012’s opening match when drawing with co-hosts Poland it would be difficult to have much faith in Bilic’s boys based on that form line alone.
Of course sport is not that straightforward, but Ireland are now unbeaten in 14 matches and it is not difficult to imagine Giovanni Trapattoni’s men extending that run.
Croatia didn’t impress in either warm-up game prior to the finals and were held to a 1-1 draw by a very limited Norway side in their final friendly clash.
Ireland don’t always play the most attractive football by any stretch of the imagination but they are tough to beat and just four goals conceded since their last loss indicates that.
However, it’s not all about just shutting out the opposition and they do have players in the likes of Aiden McGeady, Damien Duff and captain Robbie Keane who know how to create chances.
Both these sides successful navigated the play-offs with impressive away from home victories, the Irish thumping Estonia 4-0 and Croatia triumphing 3-0 in Istanbul, and throughly deserve their place in the finals with a place in the quarter-finals very much the aim.
It ended goalless when these two met in a friendly last August, a result that has featured in four of Ireland’s last ten matches, and I’ll also be having a small play on a repeat of that score line. It is a 7.00 chance with the majority of firms but that doesn’t seem to reflect the likelihood of it happening.
1pt Lay Croatia @ 2.26 (Betfair)
0.5pts Back No Goalscorer @ 7.00 (various)