Porto and Malaga can hardly be separated in the to qualify market but their difference in price tonight is significant and I’m with the Spaniards.
The home team are rightly favoured in Oporto on Tuesday in the Champions League last-16 tie but I expected them to be around 2.00, not the odds on quoted.
Both this pair qualified for the knockout stage with ease, Malaga emerging unbeaten in a group containing Zenit and Milan, and have retained their form since the first phase of matches.
Porto are battling Benfica for the title in Portugal but, while their record is outstanding, Malaga are a step up in class from the vast majority of their domestic opponents.
The visitors boast La Liga’s best defensive record and they are particularly stingy away from home, conceding just seven goals in 11 top flight matches on their travels so far this season.
Malaga have kept six clean sheets in that time and it is just three defeats in 18 away matches in all competitions, too.
That is a marvellous record, in addition to only one defeat in 24 European matches, and Porto will do well to break down Manuel Pelligrini’s side.
Porto are certainly to be feared on home soil, they won all three group matches this term, and while the likeliest winners the odds seem to overestimate their chance.
Not conceding an away goal will be Porto’s priority and I see this being one of the more cagier first legs.
Away teams certainly weren’t overrun last week, with Juventus and PSG impressing in victory, and a Malaga win would not totally surprise.
2pts Lay Porto (vs. Malaga) @ 1.80 (Betfair)