No incentive whatsoever for Real Madrid to triumph in Amsterdam tonight and the La Liga leaders are opposed on their travels.
Having won each of their first five fixtures in Group D, Jose Mourinho knows that top spot in the section is already secured and Arsenal proved last night that motivation can be seriously lacking in such circumstances when the Gunners were beaten by Olympiakos.
Real Madrid face an Ajax team that will themselves be guaranteed a place in he last 16 with a point against their illustrious opponents and it is hard to imagine this tie being particularly entertaining, especially if it gets off to slow start.
Avoiding injuries and fatigue with Barcelona looming large will be the priority for the visitors and I am surprised to see Madrid being backed this morning.
The price contraction about the nine-time European champions indicates that Mourinho might field a slightly stronger side than first anticipated but, with such a crucial El Claisco on Saturday, the Portuguese surely won’t risk the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Ajax should be able to cope with whatever the Spanish club throw at them.
Only three sides have previously won all six group games in nearly 20 years of Champions League football and Real will be happy to simply maintain their unbeaten record in this season’s competition by avoiding defeat.
A draw, which would suit both, is the most likely outcome but Ajax might just surprise and they have been in decent form of late, scoring plenty of goals along the way in the Eredivisie.
A 3-0 win for Real at the Bernabeu in late September highlighted the gulf in class between this pair but things are different now and I see both coasting into the last 16 having shared the points.
Ajax have lost just once on home soil in the previous 12 months and will relish testing themselves once again versus the very best.
1pt Lay Real Madrid (vs. Ajax) @ 2.30 (Betfair)