Estonia registered arguably their greatest ever result when triumphing in Serbia on Friday and should add to their points tally at home to Slovenia.
In a wide open Group C, both sides will fancy their chances of grabbing a playoff spot, probably behind current table-toppers Italy, and a win for either here would put them in a strong position. Slovenia, a best priced 2.10 with the bookmakers, look short enough however and I certainly want the hosts and draw on my side at those odds.
Estonia opened their campaign with a 2-1 defeat in Tallinn versus the Italians but they led until the hour mark that night and in the end were probably a shade unfortunate to be defeated. Tarmo Ruutli’s men got back on track when prevailing by the odd goal in three against whipping boys the Faroe Islands however and that set them up for their fantastic triumph in Belgrade.
The fact that Estonia fell behind in the Serbian capital, Zdravko Kuzmanovic gave the home team the lead, made their 3-1 triumph even more commendable and there is every reason to think their most recent success was not a one-off.
Estonia have become difficult to beat in front of their own fans and while there was no disgrace in narrowly getting beat by the three-time World Champions, recent wins over Belgium and Finland, in addition to holding the likes of Portugal and Croatia to draws, show they warrant much respect.
Slovenia visit the Lillekula Stadium on the back of a promising World Cup campaign that saw them beat Algeria and draw with USA in South Africa but Matjaz Kek and his team have failed to hit the ground running in attempting to qualify for back-to-back major finals and even a 5-1 win over the Faroes last time out wasn’t enough to repair previous damage.
A 1-0 reversal on home soil versus Northern Ireland was a disaster for Slovenia and they were also held in Serbia. That makes Tuesday’s clash a virtual must-win, even at this early stage, but their overall away record is poor, just two wins in over four years against competitive nations, and they are readily opposed.
Despite the fact that Ruutil will be without the suspended Raio Piiroja, Estonia’s squad is packed full of experienced internationals and should be able to continue their decent form by claiming at least a point.
With Italy facing Serbia on Tuesday top spot could well be up for grabs, too, and you couldn’t confidently rule out Estonia leapfrogging the Azzurri with a win.
3pts Lay Slovenia (vs. Estonia) @ 2.14 (Betfair)