Plenty of short priced teams in the Champions League on Wednesday, notably AC Milan, Real Madrid and Manchester United, and the most competitive game looks to be in Portugal where FC Porto host Atletico Madrid.
Chelsea, having secured three opening day points by getting the better of Jesualdo Ferreira’s side, confirmed themselves as firm favourites to top Group D and, as expected, the fight for second spot appears to involve the two sides clashing at Estadio do Dragao this week.
Porto acquitted themselves well in West London, going down narrowly to a single Nicolas Anelka strike, but looked to be sorely missing the services Lisandro Lopez, the Argentine departed in the summer for Lyon, and goals could well be a problem again despite the benefit of home advantage. That said, their opponents have started the new season poorly and I’m not really sure what to expect.
The La Liga outfit were my tip to progress behind Chelsea into the last 16 but they flattered to deceive a fortnight ago when held by newcomers APOEL and that result could prove costly. Atletico would have viewed the visit of the Cypriot champions as three all but guaranteed home points and they cannot afford to be beaten on Wednesday.
Atletico, who so often frustrate, finished last season with a flourish to secure Champions League football but their league form has been suspect so far this time around and they needed an injury time strike from Maxi Rodriguez to avoid defeat at Valencia on the weekend. Atletico are yet to win in the Spanish top flight, picking up just three points form their opening five matches, and the pressure is already heaped upon manager Abel Resino.
Nobody has conceded more goals on their travels so far in Spain than Atletico but a loss to Porto would put them massively up against it already in the Champions League and I expect them to set up far more defensively than they would domestically. That will be easier said than done, Atletico usually like to get on the front foot, but captain Antonio Lopez is more than capable of marshalling the troops from the centre of defence and Atletico have yet to be beaten away from home in the Champions League.
Draws at Anfield against Liverpool (1-1) and in Marseille (0-0) last season helped Atletico advance to the last 16 where they faced Wednesday’s opponents but a 2-2 score line at the Vicente Calderon proved costly. Porto ultimately advanced on away goals, a 0-0 stalemate in the return leg proving enough for the hosts, and it could be a similar story again this season with so much at stake.
Despite the undoubted attacking talent on display, the visitors are especially potent with the likes of Diego Forlan and Sergio Aguero to call upon, I anticipate this being tight and I’m more than willing to take the 1.83 on offer with totesport in the unders market. Both teams could well find the net, but a draw probably suits the pair at this early stage and were an early goal fail to materialise then this could prove quite uneventful. Porto rarely excite and, with Lopez now terrorising defences in France, they could struggle to find a breakthrough.
1pt Back Under 2.50 Goals (FC Porto vs. Atletico Madrid) @ 1.83 (totesport)