Deconstructing The 'Group Of Death'

There always is one, in virtually every world cup, whatever the sport. This T20 world cup is no exception. It is group C this time that is being billed as the group of death. It consists of Australia, West Indies and Sri Lanka. One of these three heavyweights will have to pack their bags and be homeward bound in three days of cricket. No matter which team it is, it will come as a huge shock, as all three have spoken positively about their chances to lift the cup come June 21.

Predict The Loser, Anyone?

It is hard to make predictions in T20 as it is, but that task becomes virtually impossible when one has to pick a loser out of three when fortunes might hinge on just one game of three hours. In fact, the stroke of luck that anyway plays a huge part in this format, might just become as omnipotent as in a lottery, if, by any chance, rain happens to strike any one of the three matches in this group. > All said and done, though, the greatest shock of loss would undoubtedly be for Australia, if they are knocked out. Considering the total dominance they have had in cricket for the last twenty odd years, their being knocked out would be no less an upset than Roger Federer being dumped in the first round of the Wimbledon. Or Brazil being packed off in the first round of the football world cup. Australia’s prospects of making it to the super-eights, however, are by no means certain, if one considers the patchy form they have displayed in T20 internationals. But West Indies and Sri Lanka haven’t been particularly impressive either. The former were famously sent back in the first round of the inaugural world cup two years back by none other than minnows Bangladesh.

But Why This Group!

Before one considers the form of the three teams and where they might hit and miss, it is worth mentioning how they managed to locate each other for this group. The factor to blame is the already much talked about seeding system. For the benefit of the uninitiated, the top four seeds of this world cup have logically been separated into the four different groups, and seeds 5-8 also find themselves one in each. The remaining four teams, including the three qualifying minnows and one dangerous floating test team have to be accommodated in one group each.

If one were to ask anyone in the cricket world which of the test teams is the weakest and should be treated as the 9th one, the unanimous answer would be Bangladesh. Still only capable of the odd upset, they have hardly challenged any other test team in any cricket series, home or away. However, the ICC decided to seed the teams solely based on performance in the last world cup. Since West Indies got knocked out in the first round by Bangladesh and failed to qualify for the super eights, they were knocked out of the top eight seeds. And the problem now is that whichever team fails to qualify from the group of death will be out of the top eight seeds for the next world cup, and there will again be a group of death. This problem could go on infinitely, unless ICC develops the sense to see how absurd their seeding system is. Imagine if Australia got knocked out in the first round, they could go ahead and win every T20 match they play over the next year and yet still not be amongst the top eight seeds for the next world cup! The ICC must take into consideration performances between two world cups as well to decide the seeds for the subsequent edition. For further comments on the seeding system, please refer to Philip Olivier’s article on Sports Pundit yesterday.

Form And Other Factors…

Considering the recent form of the three teams in the group of death, it becomes very difficult to choose a winner. > Sri Lanka have won three out of the five they have played in the last 12 months, but two of those victories came against Zimbabwe and Canada respectively. This means that they have had a paltry three T20 internationals against top teams. West Indies have won two out of four in the same period of time, and Australia three out of six. This means that one must look elsewhere for clues. If one considers match winners, all three teams have ample resources. One mustn’t forget, though, that the West Indies looked terrible in the recent test and one-day series against England, and they are carrying almost all those freshly scarred and de-motivated players. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, have a few players who did very well in the IPL recently. Muralitharan, Malinga and Dilshan were amongst the standout performers. Australia have great pedigree amongst their ranks, and if they play to potential, it will be very hard for anyone to stop them. Fatigue must be a factor for a lot of them, though. Ponting, Clarke, the Hussey brothers, Haddin and Johnson have been playing high pressure cricket virtually non-stop since last November. And they are all almost certainly going to figure in the playing eleven.

Picking A Loser At Gunpoint…

All said and done, if I was forced to pick a loser, I would stick with the West Indies for this edition as well. And the sole reason would be the disastrous performances they registered in these same conditions till three weeks back. That, and following Gayle’s comments and his seemingly strained relations with the coach, and their camp could not be a very happy one at the moment. However, bear in mind, that the same factor could work the other way as well. Adversity has been known to galvanize teams and make them unstoppable too. Pakistan’s famous turnaround in the 92 world cup and India’s equally unlikely one in 1983 and 2003 stand testimony to that. If the West Indies are to turn their fortunes around, however, their maverick captain will have to be at the center of it, just as he was at the center of their defeats.